Sensitivity analysis in investment project of biogas plant
Applied Ecology and Environmental Research
The article shows the practical value of biogas as the second generation biofuel. All the projects dealing with biogas are subjected to external risks, such as the change of market condition, customer needs, governmental regulation, etc. In conditions of uncertainty it is necessary for administration to concentrate on decision-making. Fluctuations of sales volume, energy resources and raw material prices, etc. should be taken into account. Sensitivity analysis can predict the result of negative external phenomena. We developed the economic-mathematical model for the analysis of biogas complexes sensitivity. The profitability index as a criterion for the effectiveness of investment projects is a special feature in this model. The calculations show that biogas optimal distribution provides much larger gross income. We also suggested the methodology for sensitivity analysis implementation in investment projects for biogas complex creation. According to our calculations, the most stable project has utilization both biomethane (as motor fuel) and carbon dioxide. We demonstrate that the use of the profitability index as a criterion for an investment project gives higher critical values of input external factors, that endows assured profitability of an investment project.
biomethane, profitability index, net present value, critical point, carbon dioxide, motor fuel